Latest news with #Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan
Japan Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- Japan Times
Voters in Tokyo reflect shifting political views across Japan
As voters headed to the polls on Sunday for what could be one of the most turbulent elections in recent history, constituents across Tokyo reflected the nation's diverging political beliefs. Amid heightened debate over rising prices, some voters stuck to their usual choices, while others began to seek alternatives, underscoring the fragmentation of Japan's political landscape. Although the rise in popularity of smaller parties has been making headlines in recent weeks, especially given the success of parties like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) in the Lower House election last year and the far-right Sanseito in the Tokyo Assembly election last month, many — especially among the older generation — continue to vote for the same parties as they always have. '(I voted for) the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — I always vote for them,' said 84-year-old Goro Hashimoto in Toshima Ward on Sunday morning. 'They care about the people, which is especially important with rising prices.' Another voter in her 80s, Natsuko Hagi, shared that she cast her vote for the Japanese Communist Party, as she always has. 'I want them to make (the country) better for the elderly and children,' she said. Loyalty to the ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), remains intact among some of its supporters. 'I voted for Keizo Takemi,' said 57-year-old Satoshi Kaguragi, referring to the LDP candidate in the Tokyo district who is running for re-election for the sixth time at the age of 73. 'Why? Because he's from the LDP.' On the other hand, many constituents, frustrated with the current state of affairs, have turned away from the LDP and are seeking possibilities in newer and smaller parties. 'I used to vote for the LDP, mainly because when the opposition came into power, they couldn't cooperate in Kasumigaseki and all they did was complain without offering any solutions,' said 63-year-old Ono, who only gave his last name. He cast his vote for Sanseito for the first time after being impressed by their straightforward messaging. 'Right now, (the LDP is) not putting the country first.' 'I don't know how far they will go or what power is backing them at the moment, but I think the message they're sending is very respectable,' said Ono, saying that he wanted to cast his vote for the potential he believes Sanseito represents. Takashi Kudo, a 37-year-old father, was spending the three-day weekend with his family in Shibuya Ward but voted early for the DPP in his Miyagi Prefecture hometown. 'Up until now, I used to support the LDP, but after hearing about everything that's been happening, I started thinking that the LDP is no longer the right choice,' said Kudo. 'Child-rearing issues are a top priority for me, but nothing really changes under (the LDP).' Others say they have been committed to the DPP since last year's Lower House election. A 64-year-old man, who asked to go by his last name, Ishii, said he supports the party because of how straightforward and realistic their policies are. 'I feel that the DPP has the casting vote (within the Diet), and that makes me believe they have the ability to influence the government,' he said. 'I'm counting on them.' Messaging from the DPP is also resonating with some members of the younger generation. 'I like their promise to support the working generation,' said Inoue, a 21-year-old college student, who also declined to share his first name. 'I think that's a really good policy, especially when considering Japan's future in the long-term.' Other young people, including 26-year-old Mai Kajikawa, who admits that she isn't as up-to-date on politics as she should be and mostly gets her information from social media, also believes that the current government cannot stay in power — though she hadn't yet decided who to vote for. 'I think (the government) is just stiff and entrenched,' she said, adding that her main interest lies in policies aimed at improving the situation for working women. 'I'm aware it might be cherrypicking to some extent, but because I see so many posts trending on X questioning whether we should trust the people currently in power, I felt like I should cast my vote in this election to help change things.'
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Japan's 10-Year Yield Peaks: What's Driving the Rise?
Japan's 10-year government bond yield approached 1.60% on Wednesday, July 16, reaching its highest level since late 2008. That marks a rise of over 45% since the start of the year. The upward movement is part of a broader shift across the yield curve, with the 30-year JGB hitting a record 3.21%, and the 20-year yield rising to 2.65%—its highest level since 1999. This sharp repricing comes at a politically sensitive time. Just days before the Upper House election on July 20, markets are digesting a complex mix of fiscal policy speculation, tax reform pledges, and renewed geopolitical trade risks—all of which are converging to alter expectations around Japan's interest rate environment. Rising Yields Reflect Fiscal Policy Anticipation Ahead of the Election A major driver of the recent climb in Japanese government bond yields is market anticipation of looser fiscal policy. As noted by Ken Matsumoto, Japan macro strategist at Crédit Agricole CIB, 'Japan's long yields and super-long yields are currently rising due to expectations of fiscal expansion after the Upper House election.' In the run-up to the vote, multiple political parties have proposed expanded spending and potential tax reductions. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), the largest opposition party, has made a cut to the consumption tax a central campaign pledge. What sets this election cycle apart is the shifting political landscape. Following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party–Komeito coalition's loss of its Lower House majority in 2024, the outcome of the Upper House vote may determine whether such fiscal measures—once considered politically unrealistic—move closer to implementation. Consumption Tax Debate Highlights Policy Trade-offs Japan's consumption tax rate currently stands at 10%, with a reduced 8% rate applicable to food. The last hike, implemented in 2019, aimed to shore up funding for the nation's social security system amid rising demographic pressures from an aging population. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who leads the LDP, remains opposed to cutting the tax, arguing that it is vital for maintaining Japan's social welfare programs. 'Social welfare costs will continue to rise from now on,' Ishiba warned in a recent televised debate, stressing that repealing or reducing the tax could undermine fiscal stability. Moreover, Ishiba noted that any change to the tax rate would take approximately a year to implement—rendering it ineffective as a near-term measure to counter rising costs. Instead, the LDP-Komeito coalition is proposing direct cash handouts of ¥20,000 ($139) per person, which could be executed more swiftly. Still, bond markets remain focused on the long-term implications for fiscal discipline and debt sustainability. Geopolitical Trade Risks Reinforce Upward Pressure on Yields The domestic fiscal outlook is further clouded by rising external uncertainty. On July 7, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1. He also floated even steeper duties—potentially up to 35%—while criticizing Japan for its limited purchases of American goods, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors. These trade threats are already reshaping policy discussions within Japan. DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki has publicly argued that if U.S. tariffs are enacted, a consumption tax cut may become essential to support households and businesses. From a market perspective, heightened trade tensions increase the likelihood of further fiscal support, which in turn implies greater debt issuance—a dynamic already contributing to the rise in long-term yields. Japan's Debt Burden Casts a Long Shadow Beyond near-term political and trade developments, structural fiscal challenges remain a fundamental concern. Japan holds the highest public debt ratio among advanced economies, at approximately 250% of GDP. When private-sector liabilities are included, total debt climbs to over 600% of GDP. Despite recurring calls for fiscal consolidation, current political momentum appears to favor expansionary measures. Fitch Ratings, which assigns Japan an 'A' sovereign rating with a stable outlook, warned this week that fiscal policy poses the greatest risk to Japan's credit profile. 'Calls for aggressive spending and consumption tax cuts ahead of the election could undermine fiscal discipline,' Fitch stated. Unfunded tax cuts or stimulus that fails to deliver substantial economic growth would widen deficits and accelerate Japan's already steep debt trajectory—potentially pressuring its sovereign rating over time. Bottom-Line The surge in Japanese long-term bond yields is not simply a response to technical market factors. It reflects a broader repricing of Japan's fiscal outlook, political uncertainty, and external vulnerabilities. With the Upper House election set for July 20, the results could significantly influence the country's near- and medium-term policy direction. For now, investors appear to be positioning for a potential pivot toward greater fiscal stimulus, a looser budgetary stance, and ongoing trade headwinds—all of which suggest upward pressure on yields may persist. Sources: CNBC, Reuters, The Japan Times, Japanese Ministry of Finance This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Strength for the Dollar After Higher Inflation Why Nextracker Could Be the Next Big Money Outlier Spot Outliers Like Hyperscaler Microsoft Early Identify Superstar Stocks Like DoorDash Before the Crowd NASDAQ 100 Update: Is a 5% Correction Brewing? 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